IMD: Monsoon 2018 expected to be normal

Rains, thunderstorm likely in Nagpur Max temp in Nagpur is expected to be 38 degree Celsius on Saturday

Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued.

A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy crucial for the ruling BJP government as it faces critical state elections followed by the big National Polls in 2019. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient".

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday announced that monsoon is likely to be normal this year.

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"Monsoon 2018 is likely to remain normal at 97 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) for the four-month period from June to September", said IMD director general K J Ramesh.

The IMD, however, will forecast the onset of monsoon in middle of next month.

As per the IMD, there is 42 percent possibility of normal rainfall and 12 percent possibility of heavy rainfall - it means the country can witness some rainfall in the country. Earlier, private weather forecasting agency Skymet also predicted that monsoon 2018 is expected to be normal in India in comparison to 2017. The dynamic model has forecast a rainfall of 99 per cent plus or minus a model error of five per cent, while the statistical model forecast is 97 per cent plus or minus model error of five per cent.

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This is the third uninterrupted year when the IMD forecasted the normal monsoon rains in the nation.

Despite "normal" forecast, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions. India had faced deficient rains during monsoon season in 2015 and 2014, making both these years drought years.

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