Crude oil benchmark Brent sees biggest one-day fall in two years

The big oil producers agreed to increase production last month but there are concerns about disruption in Iran Venzuela Libya Norway Canada and Brazil

Although deluged by news earlier this week of increased crude output from multiple sources and forecasts that the market will be in surplus rather than depletion mode, traders on Thursday weren't completely certain that the world will return to swimming in oil anytime soon - and as a result, USA crude prices once again dropped in reaction to the resumption of Libyan output, while Brent rose on concerns about spare capacity. It will be watching very closely the Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki next week. German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen said she didn't understand Trump's comments. Lowest in the past several years was 18 million and even that was before most of the pipelines to the Gulf were built.

Many businesses are still trying to adjust to higher prices. Short-term rally should be selling opportunities because of this, especially near the $2.85 level as we not only have structural support and resistance, but we also have the 50 and the 200 day EMAs converging. Long term this bull market is far from over. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.7 million barrels per day. We will see triple digits in oil in 2020, which has been our forecast and remains so.

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Prices also found support from a US stocks report showing USA crude inventories fell by almost 13 million barrels last week, the most in almost two years, reducing overall crude stocks to their lowest since February 2015. Production growth in the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Russian Federation will make up most of total global supply growth in 2019. The United States is also experiencing strong liquid fuels consumption growth, as the economy continues to expand. "Net crude oil and petroleum product imports into the United States have continued historic declines in 2018, and EIA's outlook is that those declines will continue in 2019", she said. Although prices received a boost after OPEC members made a decision to reach an agreement to increase production in July by nearly 1 million barrels per day, the upside remains at risk. On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 12.6 million barrels during the week-ending July 6.

The market's expectation was 4.2 million barrels of decline in the US commercial crude oil inventories, excluding SPR, but the EIA announced that the commercial crude oil inventories declined by 12.6 million barrels in the week ending July 6.

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The declaration signed by the 29 North Atlantic Treaty Organisation leaders, he said, "confirms the goal of 2 percent by 2024". President Donald Trump called the European Union a "foe" of the United States in an interview that aired Sunday.

"The end of the outage in Libya and trade fears ultimately took the reins", Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank, said in a note Friday. The agency expects inventories to be relatively unchanged in 2018 and to increase by 0.6 MMBPD in 2019, Kallanish Energy reports.

EIA sees Brent oil prices averaging $71.80/b in 2018 and $68.74/b in 2019, and WTI averaging $65.95/b in 2018 and $62.04/b in 2019.

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